Well, keep in mind this is the "car" figure. I believe the "overall fleet" average for 2026 is slated to be 40, with the light truck figure somewhere below that.
...and these are based off of EPA "highway" ratings, so they are the mostly theoretical figures from the EPA highway cycle, not real world numbers.
It will still be tough, but I think it will be doable.
I mean, these are the actuals, from 2020 (I can't seem to find anything newer). And by actuals, I mean the true averages of cars sold, not the CAFE targets:
View attachment 1534
So, domestic cars were already at ~43mpg in 2020. Who knows where they are today 2 years later, but going from 43 -> 49 in 6 years, while it sounds challenging, does not sound impossible.
Import cars seem to have been hitting ~41mpg in 2020. These are probably more realistic car numbers. I think the only reason Domestic car figures are beating them is because the domestic manufacturers have largely moved to SUV's and Trucks, leaving electrics and hybrids as a unrealistically high percentage of the cars that remain, driving up the average.
As for light trucks, what are they averaging, like 31? (I don't have tabulated data, I am just trying to interpret the chart). That is going to be the real challenge.
Overall figures as of 2020 looks like they were at about 35mpg.
I'm guessing the domestic manufacturers will drive car improvements by pushing a higher percentage of sales to electrics. Cars are such a small portion of the market now that it doesn't really make sense in investing in making ICE ones more efficient.
The importers will have more trouble doing that. They might still try to work on lightening cars and making engines more efficient, but also here I think they'll push a shift to more hybrids and electrics.
As for light trucks, well, more and lighter materials, more efficient engines, hybrids and electrics will enter the mix.
If they fall behind in any of the individual categories, they can just artificially switch buyers into cars and away from trucks by raising truck prices and lowering car prices, in order to still meet the total fleet number.