Windows 12 May Be Released in 2024

[Brian_B]

windows like they did with 10 and now 11 if they want more money.

Because they don’t want to be held liable for security breaches

 

[Burticus]

I wanna go back to Win 7.....

 

[Zarathustra]

I don't know if I believe this, cuz it feels waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too soon for Win12. Win11 has barely been on the market. Even if Win12 is coming soon, after dealing with Win10 for years (since launch actually) and checking out Win11, I don't have high hopes for Win12. Windows OSes just keep getting worse and worse. I used Win7 past EoL and will probably do the same with Win10. Currently have no plans whatsoever to move to Win11.

Who knows. They keep changing their minds.

Not that long ago Win 10 was supposed to be the perpetual version of Windows, under some sort of agile build release process pumping out new versions every few months, much like OSX/MacOS X, but then they changed their minds after Windows 10 was on the market for less than 7 years.

If this is accurate, Windows 12 would start replacing Windows 11 after only 2 years.

This does seem very fast, but it is not that crazy compared to the cadence Microsoft had during the 90's.

I mean, before XP, new versions of Windows came out every couple of years. When Vista came out in 2007, XP was 6 years old, which was positively geriatric by pre-XP standards.

I mean, if we omit minor point releases, service packs and Enterprise versions, the major release history of Windows looks something like this:

1985 - Windows 1.xx
1987- Windows 2.xx
1990 - Windows 3.xx
1995 - Windows 95
1998 - Windows 98
2000 - Windows ME
2001 - Windows XP
2007 - Windows Vista
2009 - Windows 7
2012 - Windows 8
2015 - Windows 10
2021 - Windows 11

So, from a time until next version released perspective (rounded to whole years), we have:
Windows 1.xx - 2 years
Windows 2.xx - 3 years
Windows 3.xx - 5 years
Windows 95 - 3 years
Windows 98 - 2 years
Windows ME - 1 year
Windows XP - 6 years
Windows Vista - 2 years
Windows 7 - 3 years
Windows 8 - 3 years
Windows 10 - 6 years

So, the average time until next version of windows is released is 3.2 years, ranging from 1 year to 6 years.
The average during the 80's was 2.5 years, during the 90's was 2.75 years and the average since 2000 is 4 years.

From that perspective, the Windows 11 to Windows 12 time (if this is accurate) would certainly be below average, but it is by no means any kind of record.

The funny part to me is I still think of Windows 10 as reasonably new, but at 6 years before Windows 11 was released, it is tied for the record with Windows XP.

 

[DrezKill]

Who knows. They keep changing their minds.

Not that long ago Win 10 was supposed to be the perpetual version of Windows, under some sort of agile build release process pumping out new versions every few months, much like OSX/MacOS X, but then they changed their minds after Windows 10 was on the market for less than 7 years.

If this is accurate, Windows 12 would start replacing Windows 11 after only 2 years.

This does seem very fast, but it is not that crazy compared to the cadence Microsoft had during the 90's.

I mean, before XP, new versions of Windows came out every couple of years. When Vista came out in 2007, XP was 6 years old, which was positively geriatric by pre-XP standards.

I mean, if we omit minor point releases, service packs and Enterprise versions, the major release history of Windows looks something like this:

1985 - Windows 1.xx
1987- Windows 2.xx
1990 - Windows 3.xx
1995 - Windows 95
1998 - Windows 98
2000 - Windows ME
2001 - Windows XP
2007 - Windows Vista
2009 - Windows 7
2012 - Windows 8
2015 - Windows 10
2021 - Windows 11

So, from a time until next version released perspective (rounded to whole years), we have:
Windows 1.xx - 2 years
Windows 2.xx - 3 years
Windows 3.xx - 5 years
Windows 95 - 3 years
Windows 98 - 2 years
Windows ME - 1 year
Windows XP - 6 years
Windows Vista - 2 years
Windows 7 - 3 years
Windows 8 - 3 years
Windows 10 - 6 years

So, the average time until next version of windows is released is 3.2 years, ranging from 1 year to 6 years.
The average during the 80's was 2.5 years, during the 90's was 2.75 years and the average since 2000 is 4 years.

From that perspective, the Windows 11 to Windows 12 time (if this is accurate) would certainly be below average, but it is by no means any kind of record.

The funny part to me is I still think of Windows 10 as reasonably new, but at 6 years before Windows 11 was released, it is tied for the record with Windows XP.

Aaaahhhh, very interesting about the average time between versions. Yeah I didn't factor in the 90s, and I always forget how long XP was around cuz I jumped to XP late. I was on 2K for the longest time, and somewhere around there is when I started f*cking around with Linux. Also yeah I do recall how soon Win7 came out after Vista. I got to try that one out at work before I started using it on home systems. One of my duties at my previous job was to build and configure systems for nVidia GPU driver testing, and of course nVidia wanted their drivers and cards tested on multiple OSes. The software from other clients we did QA for also were tested on a wide variety of OSes.

I keep forgetting WinME existed. Sometimes I forget about Win8 too.

I never really believed the whole Win10-as-a-service, continually-updated bullsh1t. I figured if they did try it, it would fail, but yeah looks like they didn't really bother with it anyways. So Win10 is tied with XP for longest been around eh? Wow. Time really f*cking flies.

 

[Burticus]

Also yeah I do recall how soon Win7 came out after Vista.

7 was basically Vista with some GUI and UAC changes

So Win10 is tied with XP for longest been around eh? Wow. Time really f*cking flies.

That is crazy but I guess the math is right. It doesn't "feel" like I've been using 10 forever, but yeah I do remember doing a bunch of upgrades in 2015. 8 was put to death quickly, it's biggest contribution is that the Win 8 keys work for 10.

 

[Tempest]

I agree with all of this entirely, but I think that's a different issue than the subscription model.

You're correct. I had meant to write "service" rather than "subscription", as the former is how Microsoft characterizes Windows, but even so it mostly reads as a standalone mini-rant about the ways in which Windows annoys me. Sometimes I can't resist...

This subscription thing to me at least looks like something they might implement to big companies who require tons of support, but not something for home users, they seem to care more about user data then selling copies of windows.

Yes on both counts. Support contracts and subscriptions for software are more common in the enterprise. In the short term, I see (consumer) Windows as a platform for Microsoft to continue promoting its subscription "cloud" services, and as you note, the surreptitious collection of personal information.

 

[Zarathustra]

7 was basically Vista with some GUI and UAC changes

True, but from that perspective, 8 was just 7 but with a failed tablet like interface, and 10 was just 8.1 with added cloud integration.

And 11 is just 10 with... ... a MacOS inspired GUI overhaul and some removed user freedoms?

I mean, each revision had kernel updates and scheduler patches to account for new technology, etc, but that happens within Windows versions as well.

In the grand scheme of things "Core windows" hasn't changed all that much since Vista was launched. It has just been a series of incremental kernel improvements, GUI tweaks, added features (which could just have been installable programs) and a bunch of Microsoft strong-arming, and removing user freedoms.

 

[MadMummy76]

The biggest fear right now with windows is not even the UI, but when will they start forcing online logins on all versions. And subscriptions. Because you know it's coming.

Windows as a live service. only 12.99/month or get the yearly pack at an amazing 99.99. What you want to use your computer offline? Pause online logins, but you can only do it once every month, and only for 5 days at a time, then you have to go online again and check in with big brother to be able to continue using your computer.

 

[Zarathustra]

The biggest fear right now with windows is not even the UI, but when will they start forcing online logins on all versions. And subscriptions. Because you know it's coming.

Windows as a live service. only 12.99/month or get the yearly pack at an amazing 99.99. What you want to use your computer offline? Pause online logins, but you can only do it once every month, and only for 5 days at a time, then you have to go online again and check in with big brother to be able to continue using your computer.

Yep.

If/when that happens, I will personally just top using Windows.

Unfortunately, there are probably enough people who just don't care, or who will get annoyed and then quickly conform anyway that people like me are not a sufficient deterrent for them.

I'd recommend everyone experiments with Linux now, so that when the day comes, they have options.

 

[Brian_B]

The biggest fear right now with windows is not even the UI, but when will they start forcing online logins on all versions. And subscriptions. Because you know it's coming.

I can understand that.

Honestly though, I fear the UI changes more than the changes in commercial model. Windows gets worse and worse with respect to usability, it seems, and doesn't seem like it's getting back on track.

I wouldn't mind paying for a good product. I'd prefer a one-time fee, but if it's a product that's iterating and getting better, I don't mind the concept of a subscription (pending details, of course). But Windows in general has just been going in a bad direction, paid or free or otherwise.

Someone else said it best - I use Windows now more as a console OS now than anything.

 

[MadMummy76]

Yep.

If/when that happens, I will personally just top using Windows.

Unfortunately, there are probably enough people who just don't care, or who will get annoyed and then quickly conform anyway that people like me are not a sufficient deterrent for them.

I'd recommend everyone experiments with Linux now, so that when the day comes, they have options.

I think if they really go subscription model that will deter a lot of users, their wallet is a soft spot for many more people than UI changes, especially now when gas and utilities cost 2x compared to yesteryear. People are already cutting the fluff, namely streaming services. Windows going subscription model now, would be met with extreme backlash.

I can understand that.

Honestly though, I fear the UI changes more than the changes in commercial model. Windows gets worse and worse with respect to usability, it seems, and doesn't seem like it's getting back on track.

I wouldn't mind paying for a good product. I'd prefer a one-time fee, but if it's a product that's iterating and getting better, I don't mind the concept of a subscription (pending details, of course). But Windows in general has just been going in a bad direction, paid or free or otherwise.

Someone else said it best - I use Windows now more as a console OS now than anything.

UI changes and online logins are both part of the same game - wrestling away control of their own computer from the user.

And of course more data collection, those adsense companies pay big bucks for collated profiles of billions of users. They say there is no personally identifiable data collection, but that just means your profile is stored under a random ID and not a name that can be directly associated with you.

But of course everyone knows who ever worked with databases that all it takes is a query to get an output where the data is matched to an user name, ip address, or worse customer data with payment info included. Ad companies would kill for that.

 

[Brian_B]

I've never minded Apple's OS X release cadence. They are about every 18 months, give or take.

The big difference -- if you go straight from OS X 10.0 (Cheetah) - circa 2001, to OS X 12 (Monterey) - circa 2021 (they actually advanced the number after 10.15)-- you would feel right at home. Everything is still recognizable and consistent.

iOS isn't quite the same - there was a large design shift when the Home button went away, and it went to unintuitive swipe commands for a lot of things - once you see it, it isn't hard, but if you had never used a phone before you'd have no clue, and the multitasking commands are arcane to say the least.

But Windows... I cringe every major release. It seems like every "improvement" they tout is a regression and makes things harder rather than easier. That's before we talk about hiding or removing things in the name of different interfaces.