They can't really predict it. Just throwing numbers out there like a blind man throwing a dart.
The memory situation wont be solved until HBM memory is improved with something like 3D or vertical-channel-transistor DRAM so they get more capacity per wafer. Which some experts estimate that is still a decade out, hence the "10 years" comment from him.
They could have a break through tomorrow on something that could alleviate the shortage much sooner or never.
Similar thing happened with NAND flash memory and didn't get fixed (and cheaper RAM) until they went vertically 3D with it. Which meant more capacity per wafer for them. Basically, we need the same thing to happen to DRAM or possibly HBM4 will fix it sooner.
No one knows.
Heck, the AI bubble could crash next month and all those promised contracts could be cancelled which would free up the fabs to use those wafers for DRAM instead of HBM.
This exactly... what needs to happen is the VC money needs to start drying up milking the system for all of the circular capital it can get. (Quick explainer, Nvidia capital rich makes Ai cards, needs to sell them. AI company announces it's shopping for a datacenter company to build them an AI data center, Nvidia 'invests' in AI company a few 20-50 billion dollars. AI company pays Datacenter firm for project. Datacenter firm pre orders 20-50 billion in AI compute GPU's from Nvidia while they build. AI company shows money coming in, Data center company shows money coming in, and somehow Nvidia shows money coming in... rinse and repeat.)
Once that dries up... the cost for tokens for consumers and Enterprises shoots through the moon in short order as companies have to have a balance sheet that shows they can pay their water bills.
Companies look at their AI consumption and start building much smaller more focused LLM's that they can host locally on much smaller footprint AI clusters.
AI datacenters go belly up, sell off hardware in bankruptcy court. Enterprises buy on the cheap. Market is FLOODED with these nodes. (Unless Nvidia has a contract to buy them back) Nvidia either becomes a reseller of their own, tries to buy up data centers for AI processing. (Some of that will happen regardless)
Markets start to normalize....
Unless of course AI achieves super intelligence, realizes that people are required (or not) and continues out the VC farm via it's own funding initiatives behind the scene, building out more and more farms... allocating retired hardware to consumers to keep talent in the pool for more AI farm workers. Eventually replaces them with autonomous self repairing robot systems and removes the need for humans completely. But we all hope that won't be the case.
