NVIDIA Switches to 1-Year Cadence for New GPUs, New CPUs, and More

[Tsing]

NVIDIA's next-generation products, including its successor to Blackwell for AI customers and what will presumably be many new generations of GeForce RTX GPUs for gamers, including the GeForce RTX 6000 Series and 7000 Series, may be arriving sooner than expected, according to Jensen Huang, NVIDIA Founder, President, and CEO, having told participants during a recent earnings call that his company is now on a 1-year rather than 2-year cadence for its next designs, which are said to include new GPUs, new CPUs, and more.

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[Stoly]

Its been a while since nvidia had a 1 year cadence and I remember a time when there was a 6 month cadence.

I wonder how long will nvidia be able to sustain such a cadence, though, I assume they will release a different kind of product each year. Like gaming then AI, then HTPC et al.

No doubt this will put pressure not only on both AMD and Intel but also qualcomm and maybe even apple now that apparently nvidia is going for the android (mini?)PC/mobile market.

We'll see...

 

[Stoly]

BTW remember that nvidia is THE dominant player in pretty much every market its in, so having them on the Android pc/mobile front is pretty huge.

 

[Brian_B]

Pretty close to that now

3080, 6 months later 3090, 6 months later 3060, 6 months later 3070, 6 months later 3080 Ti, 6 months later 3090 Ti, 6 months later 4080... etc etc

 

[Stoly]

Pretty close to that now

3080, 6 months later 3090, 6 months later 3060, 6 months later 3070, 6 months later 3080 Ti, 6 months later 3090 Ti, 6 months later 4080... etc etc

actually the cycle is of a brand new architecture like fermi to maxwell to pascal et al, not card models of the same family.

 

[Peter_Brosdahl]

I put this in another thread but it also has relevance here since it details both NVIDIA and AMD's release cycles.

 

[Slag-King]

actually the cycle is of a brand new architecture like fermi to maxwell to pascal et al, not card models of the same family.

I was thinking the same thing here but I'm not sure that is sustainable. The chip design is getting ridiculously complex and despite the assistance of AI, it still takes a while to design, engineer, test, redesign, reengineer, test, etc.

 

[Stoly]

I was thinking the same thing here but I'm not sure that is sustainable. The chip design is getting ridiculously complex and despite the assistance of AI, it still takes a while to design, engineer, test, redesign, reengineer, test, etc.

Yup, I'm pretty sure nvidia will find a "loophole" to claim it has a 1 year cadence, but as I mentioned it will probably release different architectures for different segments yearly, we'll probably have to wait a couple of years to get the next gen gaming architecture.

Also, just moving to a smaller process or even different foundry can take months. In such a case 6 months would be out of the question.

 

[Ditchinit]

Increases to the cadence frequency increase opportunities to skip purchasing the latest generation.

Would you get as attached to a Sony PlayStation if a better one is going to be released every 6 months?

 

[Brian_B]

actually the cycle is of a brand new architecture like fermi to maxwell to pascal et al, not card models of the same family.

I was trying to be satirical. Apparently I failed.

 

[Uvilla]

I put this in another thread but it also has relevance here since it details both NVIDIA and AMD's release cycles.

And yet AMD nor Intel is willing to price war.
A sustained price war, keeping margins low, but a margin nonetheless should be sustainable for either of them.

 

[Brian_B]

And yet AMD nor Intel is willing to price war.
A sustained price war, keeping margins low, but a margin nonetheless should be sustainable for either of them.

Until one of them feels a sting, no one is inclined to start that war off. Both of them, right now, are selling everything they can make with their fat margins just riding a sliver under nVidia. Who is also selling everything they can make charging whatever they want.

I think they have all learned that artificial scarcity is more profitable than low margin high volume. And everyone in the GPU space has been bitten, in some form or fashion, by the lure of overproduction during mining booms that everyone is gunshy to do it again.

nVidia could afford to walk away entirely from the gaming segment if they wanted to - AI is booming so big that it's completely dwarfed their consumer segment, almost overnight. AI is the break nVidia has been trying to create for decades, but never could really gain traction-- it finally did. I don't think they will abandon the consumer market entirely, but I think it's inevitable that we see a de-emphasis from it, similar to how AMD has de-emphasized their GPU market as well in favor of their more profitable segments.

 

[DrezKill]

nVidia could afford to walk away entirely from the gaming segment if they wanted to - AI is booming so big that it's completely dwarfed their consumer segment, almost overnight. AI is the break nVidia has been trying to create for decades, but never could really gain traction-- it finally did. I don't think they will abandon the consumer market entirely, but I think it's inevitable that we see a de-emphasis from it, similar to how AMD has de-emphasized their GPU market as well in favor of their more profitable segments.

That's not good for gaming GPUs at all...
There needs to be at least ONE f*cking GPU maker who is mainly focused on making gaming GPUs. Intel has their CPUs, AMD has their CPUs, nVidia has AI sh1t. So who the f*ck is out there being all about GPUs for gaming purposes?!

 

[Peter_Brosdahl]

That's not good for gaming GPUs at all...
There needs to be at least ONE f*cking GPU maker who is mainly focused on making gaming GPUs. Intel has their CPUs, AMD has their CPUs, nVidia has AI sh1t. So who the f*ck is out there being all about GPUs for gaming purposes?!

Agreed, but unfortunately, all three are eyeing the golden AI pot these days. On the flipside, though it still looks like AMD/Intel are both focused on the affordable side of things which will help keep things more in check there plus competition for all three. However, the halo segment is all NVIDIA, although AMD isn't that far behind but who knows how committed they are going to be with that tier in the next round.

 

[Brian_B]

Agreed, but unfortunately, all three are eyeing the golden AI pot these days

I don't think anything has really changed in the last... almost 10 years.

Before AI, they were all chasing the cryptomining craze - just there there was at least at the illusion of it being "consumer" cards. Now with AI they aren't even going to do that I fear.

 

[Stoly]

I find it more likely that AMD lessens its efforts on PC gaming rather than nvidia and focus on consoles and the mainstream market. If Navi40 is any indication that's what it would seem

No way nvidia will abandon a market it leads comfortably, specially when they can charge whatever they want for their cards and people will buy them.