What are you looking for value wise? Surely it isn’t 3090ti performance at 499?
Why shouldn't it be? A 3090Ti may be a stretch, but looking back historically, die size has been a decent rough indicator of what the card will cost to make, and what it will be named and sold for.
Before RTX, price correlated pretty well with die size (as well as naming convention). There were some outliers (Fermi, mainly), but all the way until we hit RTX, it was fairly consistent. I show Ti editions where available, the slope between price and die area looks a little bit more consistent if you just look at base editions, but since they named this one Ti, I decided to stick with Ti nomenclature where it was available.
4070 Ti : 295mm, $899
3070 Ti : 392mm, $599
2070 : 445mm, $499
1070 Ti : 314mm, $399
970 Ti : 398mm, $329
770 : 294mm, $399
670 : 294mm, $399
570 : 520mm, $349
470 : 529mm, $349
(data from
TechPowerUp Database)
Now, die size isn't the same thing as transistor count - for a given die size, transistor count goes up as process node improves. And a wafer on an improved process node will cost more than a lesser process node. And inflation happens, sure. And there are other components and costs: coolers, VRAM, etc. and nVidia does need to make a return on R&D. But if you pick any other die name/size and chart it over the generations, you see it's about the same - fairly in line: die size had been a decent indicator. That holds for both AMD and nVidia, and it's similarly applicable in the CPU realm as well (although those dies don't vary nearly as much as GPU).
The GTX 470 was released in Mar, 2010. I don't think we've seen 157% increase in price, even if you aggregate all those factors together, in the past 13 years. The price held reasonably for a long time, even accounting for inflation. and that is even discounting that the Fermi chip was a massive chip and they were able to keep the price that low -- which I see as an indicator of how far nVidia can afford to shave the margin when they are willing to.
So, to me: either nVidia is getting really, really greedy with their pricing, or their yields are just so abysmal they have to mark this stuff up by a crazy amount, or the price of "everything else" apart from the die has just absolutely skyrocketed. And I'm betting on the former.